Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 484 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 484 · LAS → JFK

departs 12:55 PM PT · arrives 9:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 484 · LAS → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?