Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 509 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 509 · PHL → TPA

departs 3:49 PM ET · arrives 6:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.04 in

TPA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 509 · PHL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?