Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1475
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
DL 1475 · LGA → RDU
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 9:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 60%
Mon 11/16 25%
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±8 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
7pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.35 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.