Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 771 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

DL 771 · JFK → LAX

departs 4:08 PM ET · arrives 6:57 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±16 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.9 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↑ 4pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.9 mi Precip0.42 in

LAX (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 771 · JFK → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?