Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8951
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
DL 8951 · EWR → YYC
departs 11:56 AM ET · arrives 3:37 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at YYC more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at YYC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to YYC?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at YYC
↓
Arrivals into YYC at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,367 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
YYC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.