G7 4570 · EWR → BUF

departs 6:39 PM ET · arrives 7:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day

↓ G7's recent on-time record

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.06 in

BUF (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4570 · EWR → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?