Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4039
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
OO 4039 · SEA → BZN
departs 7:59 PM PT · arrives 10:49 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 13%
Sun 11/15 25%
Mon 11/16 22%
Tue 11/17 16%
Wed 11/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BZN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BZN?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN
↓
BZN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.06 in
BZN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.