Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4754
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
OO 4754 · LAX → SMF
departs 4:33 PM PT · arrives 6:11 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 17%
Sun 11/15 24%
Mon 11/16 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.14 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.