PD 2123 · YTZ → EWR

departs 7:31 AM EST · arrives 9:12 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

YTZ (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PD 2123 · YTZ → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?