QK 465 · LGA → YYZ

departs 2:56 PM ET · arrives 4:33 PM EST

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Arrivals into YYZ at that hour are usually not late

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.40 in

YYZ (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 465 · LGA → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?