QK 551 · LGA → YTZ

departs 4:03 PM ET · arrives 5:37 PM EST

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±15 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YTZ?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Arrivals into YTZ at that hour are usually not late

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.40 in

YTZ (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 551 · LGA → YTZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YTZ?