Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1009 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 1009 · SBA → ORD

departs 1:53 PM PT · arrives 8:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from SBA are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,533 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.70 in

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1009 · SBA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?