Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1020 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 1020 · SFO → LAS

departs 10:37 AM PT · arrives 12:21 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±16 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
28%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 44 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts44 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.36 in

LAS (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1020 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?