Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1031 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 1031 · SFO → IAH

departs 2:27 PM PT · arrives 8:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±9 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
15%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
28%
Over 2 hours late
31%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.61 in

IAH (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1031 · SFO → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?