Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1068 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 1068 · LAX → SAN

departs 10:30 AM PT · arrives 11:30 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAN that day

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.13 in

SAN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1068 · LAX → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?