Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1397 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 1397 · IAH → EWR

departs 1:46 PM CT · arrives 6:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1397 · IAH → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?