Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1566 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 1566 · IAD → MEX

departs 5:44 PM ET · arrives 9:28 PM CST

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±7 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEX?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1566 · IAD → MEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEX?