Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1594 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 1594 · DEN → SMF

departs 1:29 PM MT · arrives 3:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SMF that day

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1594 · DEN → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?