Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1732 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 1732 · ORD → LAS

departs 4:24 PM CT · arrives 6:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±15 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

LAS (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling11,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1732 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?