Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1831 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 1831 · IAD → EWR

departs 5:42 PM ET · arrives 7:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

74% chance · ±15 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1831 · IAD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?