Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1900 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 1900 · EWR → MCO

departs 5:21 PM ET · arrives 8:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ 5pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.26 in

MCO (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1900 · EWR → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?