Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1904 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 1904 · ORD → ONT

departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 6:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ONT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,967 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1904 · ORD → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?