Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1938 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 1938 · IAD → PHX

departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 8:46 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±4 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

PHX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1938 · IAD → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?