Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1957 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 1957 · SFO → OGG

departs 2:07 PM PT · arrives 5:12 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±17 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
30%
Over 2 hours late
31%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 38 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts38 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.65 in

OGG (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1957 · SFO → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?