Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2157 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 2157 · LAX → IAH

departs 11:47 AM PT · arrives 5:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day

↑ 11am departures from LAX are often late

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.27 in

IAH (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2157 · LAX → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?