Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2209 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 2209 · IAD → LAS

departs 5:44 PM ET · arrives 7:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±17 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

LAS (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling11,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2209 · IAD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?