Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2291 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 2291 · SMF → ORD

departs 2:11 PM PT · arrives 8:28 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SMF that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ SMF usually runs smoothly

↓ ORD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.58 in

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2291 · SMF → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?