Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2462 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 2462 · YYZ → SFO

departs 5:04 PM EST · arrives 7:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±18 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
44%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 38 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts38 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.65 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2462 · YYZ → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?