Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 319 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 319 · LAX → PVR

departs 10:22 AM PT · arrives 3:29 PM CST

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at PVR more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PVR?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ PVR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.13 in

PVR (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 319 · LAX → PVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVR?