Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 462 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 462 · IAH → BOS

departs 4:39 PM CT · arrives 9:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±1 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 462 · IAH → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?