Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 488 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 488 · SFO → BNA

departs 12:40 PM PT · arrives 7:07 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

83% chance · ±18 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
46%
Over 2 hours late
24%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.82 in

BNA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 488 · SFO → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?