Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 499 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 499 · SFO → BNA

departs 10:55 AM PT · arrives 5:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
30%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 44 kt, 0.7 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts44 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.66 in

BNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 499 · SFO → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?