Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 743 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 743 · SFO → MCO

departs 12:36 PM PT · arrives 8:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±13 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
34%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.61 in

MCO (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 743 · SFO → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?