Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8111 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13 Tomorrow

UA 8111 · SNA → ORD

departs 2:20 PM PT · arrives 8:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from SNA are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.21 in

ORD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8111 · SNA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?