Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8290 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 8290 · ORD → DFW

departs 1:37 PM CT · arrives 4:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8290 · ORD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?