Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1016
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 1016 · SJC → SNA
departs 1:21 PM PT · arrives 2:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 11/11 12%
Thu 11/12 25%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 22%
Mon 11/16 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt forecast at SJC that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
SJC usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 35 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.35 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.