Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1020
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 1020 · PHX → LAS
departs 1:43 PM MT · arrives 1:58 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 37%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 26%
Sun 11/15 39%
Mon 11/16 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±12 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 9,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.