Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 1021 · DEN → OMA
departs 1:18 PM MT · arrives 3:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 20%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 23%
Sun 11/15 28%
Mon 11/16 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OMA (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.