Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1136
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 1136 · PHX → SMF
departs 1:51 PM MT · arrives 2:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 28%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 31%
Mon 11/16 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.58 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.