Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1155
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 1155 · SNA → OAK
departs 12:04 PM PT · arrives 1:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 22%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 30%
Mon 11/16 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±12 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are usually not late
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.24 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.