Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1214
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 1214 · SJD → SAN
departs 1:01 PM MST · arrives 2:23 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 11/12 25%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 18%
Sun 11/15 27%
Mon 11/16 20%
Tue 11/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SJD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJD
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.