Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 138
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 138 · TPA → LAS
departs 6:36 PM ET · arrives 8:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 37%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 23%
Sun 11/15 42%
Mon 11/16 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 9,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.