Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1391
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 1391 · SXM → BWI
departs 4:36 PM AST · arrives 8:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 31%
Mon 11/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SXM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SXM (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.