Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 1461 · PHX → LGB
departs 1:36 PM MT · arrives 2:04 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 29%
Mon 11/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
LGB (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.