Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1481
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 1481 · MCO → BUF
departs 3:46 PM ET · arrives 6:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 39%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 41%
Sun 11/15 48%
Mon 11/16 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.