Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1484
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 1484 · OAK → SAN
departs 12:11 PM PT · arrives 1:52 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 30%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 32%
Mon 11/16 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 0.8 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.81 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.