Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 1511 · DAL → SJC
departs 8:22 PM CT · arrives 10:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 33%
Sun 11/15 38%
Mon 11/16 33%
Tue 11/17 32%
Wed 11/18 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.50 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.