Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 1515 · BNA → LGB
departs 2:48 PM CT · arrives 5:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 11/12 22%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 28%
Mon 11/16 24%
Tue 11/17 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
LGB (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.