Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1535
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 1535 · BHM → BWI
departs 2:32 PM CT · arrives 5:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 25%
Mon 11/16 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
2pm departures from BHM are often late
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
Weather at each end
BHM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.