Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1770
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 1770 · RIC → MCO
departs 4:21 PM ET · arrives 6:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 33%
Mon 11/16 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.